2009 CFL Western Preview - British Columbia Lions

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06/23/2009 - Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record - 12-8. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-18, to Calgary in divison finals. Stadium - B.C. Place. Capacity - 29,706. Colors - Orange, black and silver

Last season, had the Lions been playing in the East Division of the CFL they would have been tied for first place with Montreal, thanks to a points total that numbered 22. Instead, BC was third in the tougher West Division, the only team among the four with a losing record against the rest of its members.

This year general manager and head coach Wally Buono is hoping to move his squad up the totem pole and give it a better shot at postseason glory. The Lions' all-time leader in wins with 74, Buono has gotten his group into the postseason in each of the last six years and into the Grey Cup tilt in 2006, but the three-time CFL Coach of the Year still has something to prove.

Guiding the British Columbia offense in 2009 is Buck Pierce, the quarterback now entering his fifth season out of New Mexico State University. Pierce had his most successful season thus far in 2008 when he completed better than 64 percent of his pass attempts for 3,018 yards and 19 touchdowns. Much more a part of the offense a season ago, Pierce still has some kinks to work out after tossing nine interceptions.

Former Notre Dame product Jarious Jackson provides a dual threat for the Lions because he can both pass (2,164 yards and 17 TDs last season) and run (362 yards) to keep defenses off balance and give the BC offense a different look from time to time.

Not to be completely overlooked is second-year man Zac Champion, someone who could easily step in and make throws in a pinch for the Lions.

Wideout Terence Scott should be one of the go-to guys on the outside for Pierce, even though he is in his first year and has signed on as a free agent. O'Neil Wilson showed huge promise in just his third season back in 2006 when he played for Montreal, catching 92 balls for 1,056 yards and yet he failed to take any one of those into the end zone. A drop-off in production the last couple of seasons means he is due to bounce back.

At running back, Ian Smart figures to be the man getting most of the carries, considering how the depth chart is beginning to shape up with some other inexperienced runners. The knock on Smart is that he is prone to putting the ball on the turf, something he did seven times on just 32 carries two seasons ago. On average, Smart has dropped the ball, literally, once out of every five attempts, something that doesn't exactly make him the most reliable guy on the roster.

Even though he was not the primary ball carrier while at Iowa the last few years, being a part of that run-happy Hawkeyes group means that Damian Sims knows what it takes to be productive and that translates into him getting a chance to show what he has for the Lions.

During training camp, the defense, specifically lineman Gary Butler, didn't exactly seem to be rolling along with the program and was instead rolling with the punches against fullback Rolly Lumbala during drills.

Perhaps the biggest problem facing the Lions is finding a replacement for Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Wake, who after logging an astounding 23 sacks, headed to the Miami Dolphins and the NFL.

Just as bad, BC also saw three key linebackers fall off the roster in Jamall Johnson, Jason Pottinger and Otis Floyd, which means the unit in the middle is having to regroup before they get too deep into the schedule.

Former Saskatchewan linebacker Anton Mackenzie was picked up to try and fill the void, but that still leaves some huge gaps that need filling. Defensive end Nautyn McKay-Loescher was brought in to hopefully ease the pain of losing Wake, but that won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination.

Some inexperience and growing pains on both sides of the ball will probably keep the Lions from reaching their full potential in 2009, and that in turn will have them struggling in the division yet again. Will it keep British Columbia out of the playoffs? We shall see.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: Fourth

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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